ICEM 2019 Workshop: Climate Risk, Adaptation & Resilience

Jan Dutton, Prescient Weather & ClimBiz

Gary Geernaert, US Department of Energy

A major heat wave in 2004 led to a multi-day blackout of the electric grid in several Western states, triggered by failures at a few power stations along major transmission lines.  The heat waves and blackout were used to simulate conditions that might be experienced after two or three decades of climate warming, demonstrating that: (a) grid stability is dominated by key transition lines; (b) much of the US grid is operating near its engineering threshold; (c) multiple blackouts would be likely in a 2035 scenario; and (d) the national economic drag from climate change and blackouts could be significant.

John A Dutton, Prescient Weather & ClimBiz

The electric power industry faces issues created by climate change and decreasing renewable energy costs.  Effective strategic and capital expenditure plans require an integrated analysis with three elements: probabilistic scenarios of the change of the key environmental variables, a mathematical and numerical model of the electric power system, and a method for assessing the relative importance of multiple criteria.   Here we use CMIP5 simulations,  a model of a large U.S. electric network, and a decision process focused on profitability, reliability, and responsibility.

Antoine Badinier, EDF

EDF, a global leader in low-carbon energy, is increasingly exposed to climate change in all its activities, including generation, sales & trading, and grid variability.  In the ongoing inevitable energy transition, we need to improve weather and climate forecasts and services and to develop new products and expertise to adapt our long term strategy to these challenges. This presentation will describe our activities and what we must do to succeed in this new paradigm for the energy sector.

Jean Thorey, RTE

RTE, the French TSO, faces multiple climate risks, including long term generation adequacy and weather damage to facilities. The main inputs are assumptions about the evolution of electricity generation and consumption along with long-term climate scenarios from Meteo France.  The major tool for generation adequacy is Antares, open-source software for unit commitment optimization with a Monte-Carlo scenario builder.  Typical issues are the effects of massive development of electric vehicles and renewables on the electricity market and on greenhouse gas emissions and whether underground cables will suffer from heat waves in urban heat islands.