RMetS VIRTUAL MEETING

Seasonal Climate Services for the Energy Industry

Agenda
Wednesday 21 April 2021, 12:00 – 13:30
12:00 Welcome & Introductions Dr M J Rodwell FRMetS
12:10 Climate services for the energy industry: state-of-the-art and where they are heading. Lessons learnt from the EU SECLI-FIRM and related projects. Dr A Troccoli
12:35 The Use of Seasonal Forecasts by the National Grid ESO Daniel Drew
12:50 Q & A Dr M J Rodwell FRMetS

SPEAKER | Professor Alberto Troccoli

BIOGRAPHY | Prof. Alberto Troccoli is the co-founder and Managing Director of WEMC and a visiting professor at the University of East Anglia (UK). He has over 25 years of experience in the fields of meteorology and climate, and in the last 10+ years has been exploring their applications in the energy, and other, sectors. His career includes time at several leading institutions such as NASA, ECMWF (UK), the University of Reading (UK) and CSIRO (Australia). He is the main author of the UN-led Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Energy Sector implementation plan and the leader of the C3S Energy operational service. In addition, he has published extensively and is also the chief editor and an author of four books. Alberto holds a PhD in Physical Oceanography from the University of Edinburgh (UK).

ABSTRACT | The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting for Integrated Risk Assessment (SECLI-FIRM) EU H2020 project (Feb 2018 to Oct 2021) is demonstrating how the use of improved seasonal climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes for 9 Case Studies in both the energy and water sectors. The project has produced advanced research in the most effective seasonal forecasts for specific applications, as well as the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry, expanding the climate services market.

After presenting some of the output of SECLI-FIRM and other relevant projects, the talk will discuss how these projects have been contributing to the wider climate service research and business development. It will also provide some considerations about where we expect (seasonal) climate services to be in the next 5-10 years

SPEAKER | Daniel Drew

BIOGRAPHY | Daniel currently works as a Senior Energy Modelling Specialist in the Modelling and Insights team at National Grid ESO. His main role is to develop models to forecast and analyse the power system and market conditions. Prior to this he worked as a post-doctoral researcher in Department of Meteorology at University of Reading contributing to a number of Energy Meteorology projects.

ABSTRACT | As Great Britain’s electricity system operator, National Grid ESO (NGESO) is responsible for the day-to-day balancing of supply and demand. As part of this role, each autumn NGESO produce a forecast for the demand over the coming winter, with a particular focus on peak electricity demand. This is to ensure there is sufficient capacity available to meet the demand. The SECLI-FIRM project has explored the potential benefits of integrating seasonal meteorological forecast information into NGESO’s demand forecasting methodology. This presentation will present some of the results from this study and highlight the potential next steps